Barrow AFC - The League Two New Boys

Settling in and a new gaffer to boot, a performance review and possible improvement.

At the time of writing League Two fresher’s Barrow have just notched another point on the board at The Progression Solicitors Stadium against Tranmere Rovers which means The Bluebirds have now registered 20 points from the 21 games played leaving them in 20th position in the table. Perhaps not a huge return but all things considered Barrow fans would probably be more happy than not with the way things have panned out so far, but could the season get even better?

In this report we are not only going to look at Barrow’s numbers this season, both in attack and in defence, and if they are over or under performing those numbers, but also where they may end up come the end of the season.

A new manager, a new start

On the 13th of December Barrow parted ways with manager David Dunn, the successor to former head coach Ian Evatt who went on to be the Bolton Wanderers head coach, following a 4-2 defeat to Crawley to go with 9 games without a win. The club then appointed former Grimsby Town manager Michael Jolley, and previously the former Scotland Universities and AFC Eskilstuna head coach, on a two and a half year contract.

Jolley is an modern head coach in every sense of the word, at just 43 years of age Jolley has had decent experience in professional football although success has so far eluded him. His acrimonious sacking from Grimsby in the November of 2019 did not put Barrow off and they obviously saw the potential that Jolley possesses in him being able to improve them with his preferred possession based style of play, being able to play more in the oppositions half, playing the ball forward as soon as possible and with more intensity. So, has it worked and can Barrow improve even more under Jolley?

Barrow- Over or under performing?

League Two can be a minefield of unpredictability at the best of times but by using certain predictive models, we at the Yushu Group, can hopefully find some steady ground and Barrow are an interesting case in point when we apply these models. We can also apply non-predictive models to assess and accompany the predictive models to gain a broad idea and subsequent clearer analysis of where Barrow can maybe improve on moving forward, starting with the team’s current performance using our xPoints model.

The graphic above shows how the current League Two table looks and Barrow, as I mentioned, are an interesting case because according to our xPoints model Barrow are the biggest under performers in League Two when it comes to actual points versus the points they would have been expected to have based on the games they have played so far. We can see Barrow are in 20th position so far however based on the xPoints model they in fact should be in 6th position, now predictive models are just that, predictive but they are now regarded as the most accurate of these types of models we can use to assess a team’s performance. Barrow should have 11 more points at this stage of the season taking them to 31 points (Wyscout’s model has Barrow at 30.9 xPoints, so our model correlates perfectly) so we can say, with an 87% confidence interval, that Barrow’s expected position of 6th is a pretty good statement, if we were to be cautious we could say that 6th is the highest expected position and between 6th and 9th would be fair given Salford City (33 points) and Walsall (31 points) currently occupy those positions respectively.

Let’s expand on that and give some reasoning as to why this may be the case.

We will use Salford City, in 6th, as the comparison here. Barrow (28 goals from an xG total of 27.4) have scored 1 goal more than Salford (27 goals from an xG total of 26.2) have so a very similar ratio it’s fair to say. Here is where the major difference comes to light Barrow have conceded 27 goals from an xGA of 22.8 so they have let in 5.8 more goals than their xGA suggests whereas Salford have conceded just the 14 goals from an xGA of 27 so they have actually conceded 13 goals less than is expected, a massive difference between the two teams, now we can see the problem for Barrow and their under-performance based on this model, they are letting in as many goals as is expected with the chances they are giving up on a per game basis against the opposition. The solution is maybe not as obvious as one would assume, Barrow need to stop not only giving up such high quality xG chances to the opposition but actually conceding goals from them. It may be stating the obvious but this is the main reason why Barrow are in 20th position because their overall goals scored and goals conceded numbers are on a par with teams much further up the league, stop giving up these chances and the league position will definitely improve, without question.

Later on we will look at where Barrow could end up in the final League Two table but first we will take a look at the current League Two points per game (PPG) including our xPoints per game (xPPG) numbers and see what we can take from that.

For the table above we have ranked the teams by their current xPPG (expected points per game) and the reason for this is because we want to identify which teams are under or over performing because over a longer period this way of analyzing a team’s performance is deemed to be pretty reliable. So from a Barrow point of view what can we take from this table? Being in the bottom four for xPPG is obviously not great and this corresponds nicely with what we were talking about in terms of Barrow’s current position in the League Two table. Barrow are ever so slightly under performing their xPPG number of 1.09 by achieving exactly 1 point per game and the solution in improving this ratio is still the same in that by improving the xGA and GA numbers the PPG and xPPG improves on a game by game basis. Barrow are one of ten teams who are currently under performing in this area so what ratio does a team need to win the league? Achieve a play-off spot? Or even avoid relegation? The best way to look at this and gain a reasonable picture is to look back over three previous seasons and apply the metrics used here so we can then apply this to Barrow for the coaching staff to decide where they may be looking to finish in the League come the end of the season and what ratio of PPG they will need to then achieve that league position. So let’s do that now.

We can see that to win the title in League Two, based on the data of the last three seasons, a team would need to be hitting an average of 1.92 points per game or above, to finish inside the play-off positions a team would need 1.59 points per game or above and to finish 22nd or above and therefore avoid relegation a team would need 0.93 points per game or above so basically with Barrow currently achieving exactly 1 point per game we can say, with some confidence and taking into account other teams performance over the course of a season, that Barrow would currently be finishing in or around 22nd position therefore just avoiding relegation however if we go back and think about the under-performance we talked about, and if Jolley can implement his style on the team, they really could be finishing higher than that.

So can we predict a final league table using all the metrics we have spoken about to see if they all correspond correctly? Yes we can so let’s take a look at that predicted League Two table below.

So we can see that indeed the metrics have been applied and the table looks pretty familiar with the top teams in the league like Newport County and Forest Green solidifying their places at the top of the table with current in-form teams like Carlisle and Morecambe, although the latter’s sustainability is still questionable, but it is Barrow we are focusing on and it looks like we have got it pretty much spot on with The Bluebirds gaining a place on what our predictive models have given us but of course this means Barrow getting another 26 points on the 20 they have on the board already, can it be done? Well to do that they will need 1.04 PPG which is very achievable once Jolley has a transfer window under his belt and has time to work with the squad for a sustained period of time.

So what can Barrow do, or who more importantly can Barrow target to stop the goals going in at the wrong end? Firstly let’s look at Barrow’s numbers in attack and then in defense to see if we can spot some deeper issues.

Above we have a Yushu Group Radar plot and the idea here is to show Barrow’s attacking output in League Two only so far this season. Barrow are scoring slightly below what their xG suggests per 90 minutes however they are ranked 8th in League Two for actual shots attempted with 11 per 90 minutes. Their possession percentage of 51% ranks them in 9th in the league, not too shabby at all.

In summary Barrow could do with improving their shots to goals ratio to ease the burden on the defensive issues they are facing. Set pieces may want looking at to see if they are really maximizing the set up in this area and also the key passes is a concern are they perhaps missing a player or players to be able to provide a threat from their passing in the final third? At the Yushu Group we are able to provide in-depth player and team recruitment strategies but that is for another day.

This is where we start to see some big issues for Barrow. They have conceded 18 goals from open play alone but worryingly they have a major issue with conceding goals from set pieces at 0.4 per 90 (they have conceded 8 in total so far) which may not seem high but it really is. In fact it is the joint 5th worst ratio in League Two with Exeter City, behind Colchester (13), Oldham and Bolton (12) and Crawley (9) and this will need to be addressed as soon as possible as opposition teams will be very much aware of their weakness in this area.

Barrow’s PPDA of 10.2 could be perceived as either poor or average depending on the pressing strategy that Jolley will look to impose on his team in the coming months. For comparison Carlisle use a high press and they have a PPDA of 7.2, the best in the league, but also have a challenge intensity of 8.7, also the best in the league (Wyscout term their definition of this as duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession), impressive, as this is what an intense pressing strategy looks like in numbers.

Barrow although conceding less than a goal a game from open play are actually conceding at a rate of 1.35 per 90 minutes if we include all goals conceded and this is where the goals conceded from set pieces are affecting them.

Possible recruitment

Having identified Barrow’s issues in defending we have selected a player who can play in central midfield especially in the CDM position, who can pick a key pass out and who is also especially adept at the defensive part of his game. If we run some defensive numbers through our player database a few names come up but we have to bear in mind the budget is very small at Barrow so we narrowed it down even more and Martin Smith, currently out of favour at Salford City and who would be available, looks to fit the bill nicely.

Barrow need a ball winner in central midfield and Smith excels in this area of the game averaging 7 interceptions per 90 minutes whilst on loan at Chorley in the National League last season as well as 5.7 ball recoveries to accompany those interceptions. Smith is also strong aerially and would be a very welcome addition in trying to solve Barrow’s defensive set piece issues although on attacking set pieces he does need to improve somewhat. Smith also has vast experience in fitting into the 3-4-1-2/3-1-4-2 formations in which Barrow have played the majority of their games in this season

Our second player we recommend is Maidenhead United’s Josh Coley.

Coley, a former Norwich City U23 midfielder who has pace to burn, has played mainly as a left winger but can also play as an inverted winger on the right of midfield and also as a center forward. He has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 13 appearances so far this season and is easily a League Two player if not higher. Coley possesses a very quick change of pace with a sharp burst to get away from opposition defenders to accompany his excellent dribbling ability. One of Coley’s best traits is a mindset in that he has a defending-from-the-front style of play and his 3.68 High Pressures per 90 minutes are testament to that and when watching him play he is intense and dogged like in his attempts to not only press opposition center backs he will then look to sprint and press the full backs should they receive the ball and this is what Barrow could do with right now, a winger or center forward who has bundles of energy and can press high and force the opposition to maybe play longer balls to then ease the pressure on the Barrow goal considering we know they are giving up a fair few shots per game. He is also exceeding his xA of 0.2 by providing 0.37 assists per 90 minutes as well as successfully completing 3 dribbles per 90. Coley also is adept at winning fouls and relieving pressure on his team when he receives the ball out wide, another nice addition to his overall style of play.

In Summary

• Barrow need to start to convert more of those 11 shots per 90 minutes to counter act their defensive issues in the same area.

• Recruit a midfielder who can provide defensive stability in the transitions and who can also provide some key passes as well as add the flexibility to fit into various systems.

• Stop the vulnerability from the opposition attacking set pieces as well as scoring a few more from their own attacking ones.