Analysis, Data & Lee Johnson

Why Sunderland’s new Head Coach will leave no stone unturned when it comes to preparation.

At the end of the 2012-2013 Championship season and Bristol City had just been relegated to League One with manager Sean O’Driscoll at the helm, the team being bottom at the time of his appointment in January of 2013, something needed to change, drastically. O’Driscoll continued in the role until November of the same year before Steve Cotterill then took over in early December after O’Driscoll was relieved of his duties. Both Brian and Steve were very much aware of many different techniques of various analyses and were great students and users of them. Sam Stanton was appointed as Head of Analysis in the summer of 2013 at O’Driscoll’s request but at that time there was very little in place at the club in terms of any real analysis structure, a philosophy of building a functioning analysis department had begun.

By the time Johnson was in place as Bristol City manager a new era in analysis at the club had begun and within the next four years pre and post match, training, and live analysis had been firmly put in place with Hudl, Sportscode and CoachPaint, which Johnson was now using at home to prepare for team meetings as well as preparing for upcoming games, were all being used on a regular basis. Large outdoor screens were being utilized in training, a tool which Johnson had seen when on a trip to Germany. Drones were also being used in training sessions.

These tools were all a huge part in creating, analyzing and implementing Johnson’s style of play with the analysis department a huge part of Johnson’s team.

But this doesn’t tell the whole story. As Data Analysts within football we know the importance of using the data in a variety of ways to aid a manager and recruitment department in the decisions they will make whether that be in assessing potential transfer targets alongside some video analysis or opposition analysis as well as post match and bespoke data projects throughout a season. Johnson is a keen advocate and user of data in football and has long seen its merits but of course it is all very well creating fancy graphics and tables but in our opinion they must be used by a manager, in this instance, to be inclusive and useful to him so he can incorporate what is produced into his philosophy both in his recruitment methodology, his training methods and his pre and post match processes. This information should be as clear as possible and be able to be easily decipherable to the manager, coaching staff and players alike. Analysts are now a key part of the first team set up and Johnson, because of his knowledge in this department, appreciates them more than most managers and with over 370 games under his belt as a manager, 140 wins and a win percentage of 37.7%, Johnson clearly uses data to his advantage.

Yushu Group xT Passing Network used in Post Match Analysis Reports

There are of course many philosophies in terms of how best to go about recruitment in professional football clubs when it comes to incorporating data driven player identification but at the Yushu Group we believe we have a solid foundation which is reliable and without complication and below we have an example of a simple visualization that can be used when identifying players. 

Lee Johnson’s appointment at Sunderland is a challenge there is no doubt about it but after stints at Oldham and Barnsley where he continually improved the two clubs final league positions, as well as most recently at Bristol City of course, it is clear to see why The Mackems have employed him, did they look at his data over the years perhaps? They would have been wise to do so that’s for sure.

Johnson mentioned after his first game in charge, a loss to Wigan, that he was looking to add some pace and power at the top end of the pitch so let’s start by taking a quick look at that area of his squad. 

Can we identify a Center Forward, or Striker and initially using data, by using Yushu Group’s specifically chosen metrics for that position? Names like Tottenham’s Jack Clarke, a former Leeds United loanee and Manchester City’s young striker Liam Delap have both been mentioned but may come at a cost to Sunderland and wouldn’t be permanent signings so what else is out there? 

Step forward Crawley Town’s Max Watters. We will compare him with Sunderland striker Charlie Wyke on the radar plot so we can see a comparison (we could see Watters and Wyke on separate radars but this will make a comparison much harder to visualize). Both have played similar minutes (over 700) and have made over 10 appearances so the metrics used will be favorable to both players when applying the metrics we will be using.

Both players have played in a front two this season, Watters in a 4-4-2 mainly which is important because Johnson has used a 4-4-2, and also a 3-5-2/3-1-4-2 in the recent past so Watters will easily fit the system however Watters has also played in a 4-3-3 at Crawley so it is clear he can play in a variety of formations in either a front two or as part of a front three.

Wyke vs Watters Comparison Radar

So when pitching Wyke up against Watters we can see the latter clearly fits the profile we are looking for and he actually betters Wyke in most areas, now of course we have to account for the level of the two league’s but we don’t think that is really an issue here. We can see Watters is having a great season in terms of goal scoring 9 goals so far in all competitions and at a rate of over a goal a game, very impressive and easily exceeding his xG per 90 of 0.46. Aerially Wyke is posting some good numbers but has been dealing with a fair few long balls in truth something which going forward may not suit Johnson’s possession based style of football it might be said. We could dissect these metrics one by one and of course this is a very small part of the recruitment process and at the Yushu Group we have many tools available in being able to use data to initially identify a potential transfer target but we think overall it is fair to say Watters would suit Johnson’s idea of a striker as he has pace and power in abundance, he knows where the goal is, his movement is very good in and around the box and his link up play is also very good plus he mixes up his game in coming short to link up with the midfield but he can also run in behind and stretch defenses. But what is vitally important is that he is very adaptable and can play in a variety of attacking positions in a variety of systems, an added bonus is he is also very young at 21 and has huge potential to learn and Crawley would surely be willing to sell, should the price be right of course. 

A potential recruit has been identified, but let’s move on to what Sunderland fans could expect to see from a Lee Johnson team and what does he need to improve the team on?

Addressing the issues

We have mentioned briefly that although Sunderland would like to think themselves a possession based side, this is probably a fair assessment given they have averaged 54.3% possession in League Two which is only second to MK Dons who average 60.2% so in terms of keeping the ball not much needs to change but it’s what Sunderland do with the ball in the final third that seems to be the issue. Sunderland are the 13th highest scorers in the league with 18 goals scored yet in taking 14.5 shots per game (highest in League One) should this total be much higher? Sunderland are currently ranked 12th for actual shots on target so possibly not, in fact Sunderland have a total xG of 27 meaning they are under performing this metric by 9 goals.

The take home message here is that they simply need to be much more ruthless in front of goal. Creating chances doesn’t seem to be a problem but the conversion rate of shots at 23% needs, and should be, much better. The sheer amount of shots that end up on target also needs to vastly improve.

 Sunderland are getting the balls into the box from crosses (29 per game so far this season which ranks them 1st in League One), they rank 9th in the league for long passes attempted, reasonably high for a possession based side I would say. It is possible that Wyke, at 6ft 2” is a tempting focal point both from these crosses and the longer passes and with him in the side Sunderland are looking to hit him a bit too often instead of having the confidence in the latter phases of their attacking play to keep hold of the ball higher up the pitch and recycle the ball should that be necessary. Another smaller aspect that is noticeable is that Sunderland average 0 through balls per game, why is that? Are there enough runners getting in behind stretching teams? Are teams sitting in a low block against them? A small point maybe but all the more reason to have a better look into that specific area of the key pass metric we think. 

Regaining possession and the need for a high press strategy

Sunderland Pressing Thirds Graphic

Our Yushu Group Pressing graphic above, shows where on the pitch Sunderland have recovered the ball in terms of a percentage. The graphic is very clear in showing Sunderland are winning the ball back more often than not in the middle third of the pitch (with a 47% success rate, which is ok) and with Johnson expressing his desire for Sunderland to press as high as possible, and with reasonable intensity, this will now clearly have to improve in the final third especially one would think. 

 Strengths and Weaknesses: Where will Johnson look to improve his Sunderland team?

Attacking

Yushu Group Team Attacking Radar

Once again we will choose a radar plot to show how Sunderland are currently performing, firstly in an attack.

A couple of things immediately grab our attention here and could certainly be interpreted as red flags but Johnson’s attention to detail will mean he will see them as challenge’s to overcome.

Firstly, we can see that of all Sunderland’s 18 League One goals scored this season only 1 has come from a set piece and with only 7 other teams having scored less than 4 set piece goals this season we suspect this may well be the first thing Johnson will address and attempt to improve his players on. Secondly, and we have touched upon it briefly earlier, Sunderland’s chance conversion is fairly low at just 23% and with them taking just over 14 shots per game with 4.6 ending up on target, Johnson will also need to improve his players shooting efficiency especially given they currently have an xG per 90 of 1.82 yet are only scoring at a rate of 1.2 goals per 90 minutes. The volume of chances isn’t the problem here it’s the converting of those chances that need to improve.

We could compare Sunderland with the league averages with these metrics and of course we could add in, take out or change the metrics to suit certain areas of Sunderland’s attacking play but we have identified quite quickly at least two areas that Johnson may want to improve upon.

Defending

Yushu Group Team Defensive Radar

Now we will switch to analyze how Johnson may look to improve Sunderland in their defensive set up and in all honesty they are posting some pretty good defensive numbers here.

 Sunderland only give up 7.5 total shots per 90 minutes, the best in League One, they have conceded no goals from counter attacks from the opposition and although we spoke about Johnson wanting them to press high, 11 opponent half recoveries should not be sniffed at so this leads us to think the Sunderland pressing strategy just needs to be tweaked a little into being a bit more organized with triggers possibly being implemented as a way to solve this issue.

A PPDA of 4.6 does not point to a high intensity press and so again this we believe brings us back to the point we have just made.

Sunderland are just about over perform their goals against and xGA numbers and both, in all fairness, point to them having a pretty organized defensive unit as they have conceded a total of 13 goals which ranks them joint 5th best in League One with 9 coming from open play. Again, pretty solid numbers it seems but as always everything can be improved. 

In Summary

There is no doubt that in Lee Johnson Sunderland have appointed a shrewd and a tactically versatile head coach who will look to not only look to continually improve the squad that he has but also improve other areas of the football set up at the Stadium of Light. A smart in-game coach Johnson will adapt to League One and all the potential hazards that are involved and if he can impose his tactical knowledge on his team Sunderland will be creeping up the table without a doubt.

If he can sort out how Sunderland are performing in front of goal and shore up the back line a little more he will surely see the benefits sooner rather than later.